1. Shockwave Out Of Japan
The Japanese yen has soared a little over 1.5% in the past 15 minutes at the time of writing — likely to fall harder if true — on noise about currency intervention.
It is now back to around 160 against the U.S. dollar. It likely is an intervention.
But know this: a bunch of previous interventions by Japan have failed miserably. They haven’t been able to keep the currency stable.
Japan remains a risk that shouldn’t be overlooked because it has the potential to shock the global financial system fairly quickly.
2. The Bond Market Is Sending a Signal
The Federal Reserve didn’t raise rates — but three members voted to increase them.
Have you looked at long-term U.S. bond yields today? The 30-year U.S. Treasury is yielding around 5.2%. That’s the highest level in about 20 years.
The bond market is reacting, and don’t take it lightly. The debt market is huge. A bunch of companies, banks, funds, etc. could be standing on very fragile ground with rates shooting higher.
3. Oil Is Still a Headline Machine
The war between the U.S. and Iran continues.
Yesterday, we learned that Saudi Arabia is flexing some muscles too.
Today, Egypt is saying two of its ships were attacked.
Oil, though, is sliding a little on all the news. Keep in mind: oil is highly reactive to headlines and can make wild moves. So, as we’ve been saying, don’t bet your rent on any direction. One tweet can change the direction.
4. Central Banks Are Still Buying Gold
Central banks bought about 289 tonnes of gold in the second quarter of 2026.
Guess who the biggest central bank buyers were? Poland and China.
The numbers are interesting. Central bank gold buying in the first half of 2026 was the lowest since 2022. However, buying was up 62% from Q2 2025 and 411% from Q1 2026.
One thing to keep in mind: they are buying, and they will likely continue buying over the next 12 months.
But are they becoming somewhat price sensitive? Or was it simply volatility that kept them away from buying in Q1?
5. The S&P 500 Is Still Below a Key Level
Yesterday was the fourth consecutive day the S&P 500 closed below its 50-day moving average.
Markets reacted a bit after the Fed announcement.
Could the market move lower? Yes, it’s possible. Below the 50-day moving average, you want to be careful. Over the past few years, decent selling has often followed.
If selling does follow, then watch the 200-day moving average.
If buyers come back, watch for a move back above the 50-day moving average. If that doesn’t happen, another move lower could follow.