1. Everything Is Going to Be Fine, Right?
U.S. 10-year yields are at 4.7% — up about 57 bps year-to-date and trending higher.
U.S. 30-year yields are at 5.3% — up about 50 bps year-to-date and trending higher.
Oil is up close to 50% year-to-date and trending higher.
Wholesale gasoline prices are up about 93% year-to-date and trending higher.
Trump is weighing nuclear weapons on Iran, with possible escalations coming within days.
Everything is going to be fine, right?
2. Gold Is at a Major Test
Gold continues to find resistance around $4,450. But it hasn’t broken yet.
As we have repeatedly said, watch the 200-day moving average. A close above it could be very encouraging. If not, gold goes down.
Overall, keep a watch on yields and the U.S. dollar. They could put pressure on gold.
Also, stay tuned on social media. We’re planning a series about our long-term view on gold. Will be up in coming days.
3. Housing Is Showing Some Weakness
Canadian and U.S. housing starts came in lower than expected this morning.
Tomorrow, we get the Fed meeting minutes.
Let’s see how they are looking at inflation.
The rest of the week is relatively busy with economic data, but it may not be as market moving. More focus could be on Strait of Hormuz, and yields.
4. Don’t Get Too Comfortable
Very rarely do major moves happen during the summer months in the stock market.
Generally, it’s earlier in the year, and then around the end of August onward — until early to mid-November — when things really heat up.
There’s a lot going on.
Very little attention is being paid to the bearish arguments.
Nothing has to go wrong. But if people simply decide to take some profits, it could look ugly out there.
Stops are not a bad idea.
5. Bitcoin, Canadian Resources & TACO
Bitcoin has crossed back above its 50-day moving average. But what’s the narrative here?
There’s a lot of buzz around Canadian resources. A lot! We could be entering a very hot M&A market.
Will Trump TACO on Canadian tariffs?
Home Depot is saying: “Frozen housing market conditions.”