1. Bonds. That’s What Everyone Is Watching.
The world is in sync… on the wrong road.
There’s a lot of debt out there, and yields are going higher.
How does that end?
This has the potential to break stuff.
2. Bonds Could Hurt Stocks Too
Since the bond market is so immense, anything going wrong will have direct consequences on stocks and other places.
Stocks are coasting along for now just fine. Why not own stocks only if bonds are doing so horribly, right?
But remember: the bond market impacts interest rates, and interest rates are a very essential part of stock valuations. If nothing changes and we just expect rates to go higher, stocks might have to come down.
Something we have warned about before: be mindful in September and October. The market can get a big punch in the face.
3. Gold Is Finding Buyers For Now
Gold is finding some buyers today — $4,300 looks to be a support level for now.
Currently, it is sandwiched between its 200-day moving average and the 50-day moving average. If there’s a recovery above the 200-day moving average, we fully expect buyers rushing in.
Gold and oil correlation has somewhat made a comeback too.
Also, yields are probably impacting the sentiment around the yellow metal as well.
4. War Is Back On — Watch Oil & Diesel
So, the war between the U.S. and Iran is back on.
This is causing an uproar in oil prices. Gasoline prices are going up, but the biggest thing to watch would be diesel prices. They have really spiked, and diesel is a very important industrial fuel. This has the potential to impact prices.
Also, another story worth watching: wheat prices and what’s happening in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. There’s some escalation, and it’s impacting trade around the Black Sea.
5. Bitcoin, BoC & Another Yen Intervention?
Clear resistance on Bitcoin around $80,000. A cross above it could bring buyers.
Bank of Canada holds. Not really shocking. The press conference will be worth watching. Does the BoC think policy — trade war issues — could bring inflation?
Friday, we get job numbers from the U.S. and Canada.
Did we just get a yen intervention, again?