1. Peace Deal Rejected, Oil Heats Up
Oil prices are rising this morning.
If you thought there would be peace going to the weekend, you were wrong. There was a lot of noise, and it turns out President Trump rejected the peace deal. He wants to bomb Iran again.
Not shocking at all: this is impacting energy prices, and oil is up this morning.
From the UK, we’re seeing headlines about rationing on diesel. Scary overall for Europe. Also, apparently President Trump is considering ban on diesel export.
If there’s any place that will be hurt the most by energy-related problems, it’s Europe. Potentially Japan as well, because Japan imports almost all of its oil.
2. The 10-Year Hits 5.2% and Goes Vertical
The bond market continues to be a risk with the potential to break things. The yield on the 10-year is at 5.2% right now.
The trend is pointing up, the move is significantly strong, and it’s very vertical. That’s what makes it all scary.
If the trend doesn’t change, the bond market has the potential to break things.
Keep in mind, the bond market is much bigger than the stock market, and it impacts consumers on a regular basis. Don’t be naïve with, “yields were higher in 90s or 80s.” There wasn’t much debt and leveraged then.
3. Gold Cracks $4,300, Eyes $4,000
As oil prices go up, we’ve noticed that oil and gold have had a negative correlation, and that’s playing out.
Plus, with yields going higher, gold is becoming a little “less attractive.” As I write this, gold is having a significant day, down more than 3%.
Can it go lower? The $4,300 level, which held very well for a few weeks, seems to be broken. The next big support level isn’t until $4,000.
If $4,000 breaks, there will be more selling that could take gold all the way down to $3,500-$3,300.
Our long-term view at Zulfiqar Research: the lower gold goes, the better the opportunity becomes.
4. Jobs Friday and the Rise of “Funflation”
This Friday, we get U.S. employment data. It will be interesting to watch because last month there were some revisions. Did the job market improve with all the uncertainty around?
Plus, Bank of America came out talking about “funflation.” Hey, that’s a new word. Essentially, the cost of doing fun things is going up. And, how consumers are still paying.
Over the past few days, we have been noticing bunch of articles about consumers remaining strong and U.S. economy remaining resilient.
5. Earnings Season and the AI Narrative Shift
The last quarter of 2026 is about to begin, and we’ll be getting into earnings season soon.
Keep in mind that during earnings season, your stock-specific risk goes up. Know what you own and why you own it.
There’s been significant noise about AI and AI stocks lately, but there have been some risks building in the background too. At Zulfiqar Research, we try to follow the narrative, because the narrative can tell you a lot about what could be coming next.
This year, the narrative has gone from “AI is going to be the next big thing” to now even Bill Gates talking about how AI could kill a lot of humans.
Stops are never a bad idea not matter your view – bullish or bearish.