1. Jobs Disappoint, and the Revisions Are Worse
The U.S. reported 29,000 jobs for the month of September, well below expectations.
But the most interesting part was what happened in July and August. There were big revisions, and July actually showed a job loss instead of a job gain.
Keep in mind, the Fed just raised rates because it’s concerned about inflation, but the job market is looking a little slow and scary.
Worth watching how it all plays out.
2. Everyone’s Bullish Heading Into Q4
Going into the fourth quarter of 2026, everybody seems bullish.
There isn’t much bearishness out there, despite the 10-year yield at 5%, all sorts of problems in the geopolitical backdrop, and economic data turning slightly in the wrong direction.
But let’s see.
We know markets can remain irrational longer than one would expect. But the big question remains: will stocks have a stellar Q4? Apparently, midterm cycles are great for stocks in Q4.
Plus, there could be a case that if yields are going higher, bonds are a bad place to be. Therefore, “buy stocks.” (not a recommendation, just a statement)
3. Gold Below $4,300 — $4,000 Is the Line in the Sand
As yields have spiked, gold has been under pressure.
$4,300 was a big level we were watching closely, and it has been broken. Gold is now below that.
Today’s jobs numbers gave it a little boost, but let’s see if it holds throughout the day.
We’re keeping a close watch on the 50-day moving average and what happens around $4,300.
The next support level for gold is around $4,000.
If $4,000 breaks, it’s going to look very ugly. But for that to break, we would need some sort of broad market selling, some sort of liquidation event somewhere.
4. Bitcoin Is Waiting for Its Story
There’s a lot of buzz around Bitcoin these days.
Even Citigroup came out with a target above $100,000, saying it’s all about increasing ETF flows and so on.
But keep in mind, the crypto market is looking for a narrative. It’s looking for something positive to hold on to. There are a bunch of things helping it, but there isn’t one main narrative playing out.
Once a narrative comes, don’t be shocked if Bitcoin crosses above $100,000.
Remember, the big buyers who hold Bitcoin aren’t selling. That creates demand, even if only a few more people come in.
5. The “Few Weeks” War Hits Diesel
Remember how the Iran war was supposed to last just a few weeks?
We’re several months in now, and we’re learning that the U.S. is sending more troops and another carrier. President Trump is thinking about potentially bombing Iran right after the midterms.
Obviously, this is all impacting energy prices.
But there’s also a lot of buzz around the diesel market, with Chinese refineries suspending fuel exports for October, plus diesel export ban noise out of the U.S. This creates a very interesting situation.
Keep in mind, diesel is a commercial fuel. As diesel prices go up, the cost of things goes up directly, and we as consumers are on the hook for it.