1. Foreign Money Pours Into Canada
It’s a slow data day today.
This morning, we got Canadian housing starts and Canada’s international transactions in securities.
Housing starts came in stronger than expected.
The foreign securities data was interesting. In the first eight months of 2026, foreign investors invested $161.6 billion in Canadian securities. That compares with $27.1 billion over the same period in 2025. That’s a big improvement.
However, August was the first month in which foreign investors were net sellers of Canadian securities, selling $17.3 billion.
2. No Nukes, No Ground Troops But Tankers Are the Real Problem
President Trump is saying he won’t use nuclear weapons or send ground troops to Iran. We knew that was the case to begin with.
But the problem isn’t ground troops or nuclear weapons. The problem is tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
The more tankers that get shot at, the bigger the potential impact on oil prices.
3. Gold Stuck in Its $100 Box — Silver Still Looks Damaged
Gold remains sandwiched in the $4,100 to $4,200 range it’s been trading in for a couple of weeks now.
Again, it will need to move above or below that range to give us some idea of its near-term direction.
Silver had a decent day yesterday, but the chart still looks damaged and needs a lot of work. $55 is a big level to watch. Below $55, some pain could follow.
4. The S&P 500’s 50-Day Lifeline And AI Is Under Fire
Since mid-September, the S&P 500 has found support at its 50-day moving average three times, most recently yesterday and the day before. The 50-day moving average has been a very strong support level for the index.
Keep in mind, earnings season continues.
Meanwhile, the AI trade is facing some serious questions. This morning, we learned that valuations for Anthropic have come down. That’s going to put even more pressure on the AI trade.
Will the Anthropic IPO get shelved?
5. Bitcoin, Loonie, Yields & Canadian Housing Market
Bitcoin continues to find support around its 50-day moving average. That has been a very strong level over the past few days, at least.
We’ve seen a decent decline in yields over the past few days, but this morning, yields seem to be holding up. It’s Friday, and Fridays have been a little more volatile lately. Will yields continue to trend higher? The 10-year is at 5.1%, and the 30-year is at 5.4%.
The Canadian dollar is bouncing a little against the U.S. dollar this morning, but the overall trend remains down. We’re keeping an eye on 70 cents. A break below that could be bad for the Canadian dollar.
The Canadian Real Estate Association has downgraded its forecast for home sales activity in 2026. It now expects a little over 444,000 homes to be sold by the end of this year, a decline of 5.2% from 2025. That’s also down from its July forecast. However, CREA expects home prices to increase 0.2% on an annual basis this year.