1. Data Sites Weirdly Down
The fact that several websites where you’d normally get economic data, including FRED yesterday and, this morning, Statistics Canada, aren’t working is very interesting. There have been some reports about flaws on the PHP side of things, which powers the majority of websites. Could this be the reason?
This morning we got Canadian PPI, and it came in higher than expected across the board. U.S. unemployment claims were also reported this morning and came in lower than expected.
Tomorrow, we get Canadian retail sales and revisions to the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index.
2. French Bond Yields Top 5%: Time for “Whatever It Takes”?
French bond yields continue to rise, with the 10-year now above 5%.
Will the ECB come out and say it will do whatever it takes to make sure the Eurozone is fine?
As this happens, there are also stories about a truckers’ protest in Italy.
The euro continues to slide against the U.S. dollar. Over the past few weeks, it has really come down, falling a little over 4% since mid-August. The trend suggests it could go lower.
3. Oil Breaking Out: Brent Tops $110
Oil prices are climbing. WTI is at $99, closing in on $100, while Brent has crossed $110.
In the short term, there seems to be a breakout on Brent at least.
It’s all the war-related noise driving oil prices higher.
Based on the headlines and reporting coming out, it’s becoming very clear that the U.S. and Israel are going to be bombing Iran once again. Iran has made it very clear that it will retaliate.
Meanwhile, the Houthis in Yemen continue to attack Saudi Arabia.
The oil market is highly reactive to these developments, and it’s going to stay that way. This is a massive energy-producing region.
Keep in mind, allocate wisely.
4. Gold Slips, Silver Wobbles, Copper Bleeds
At the time of writing, gold is below the $4,100 level. This level has been support for gold for a while, but the day is still young. We’ll see how it does. A close below $4,100 may motivate sellers.
Gold has been sandwiched in $4,100-$4,200 range for a while. If it breaks above or below the range, the move could have some legs to it.
Silver is weakening and testing the $55 area again. The silver chart continues to look broken. A break below the $53 to $55 support zone could be painful and take silver prices all the way down to the $45 to $47 range.
Copper is seeing one of its biggest down days in a while, currently trading at $6.41 per pound.
5. The S&P 500 Tests Its 50-Day Moving Average Again
Yesterday, the S&P 500 found support at its 50-day moving average and bounced higher. This morning, it’s likely to open below that level.
We’re watching this closely. We’ve seen three tests of the 50-day moving average since mid-September. A move below it could bring in sellers. We’ve seen that before, so it won’t be shocking if it happens again.
Keep in mind, earnings season continues, and during earnings season, your stock-specific risk goes up.
The AI trade continues to be under the microscope, with a lot of questions being asked. Names like CoreWeave (CRWV) are getting hit really hard. Remember, nothing even has to go wrong. If people simply decide to take profits, we could see some selling.