1. Black Monday or Just a Healthy Pullback?
Friday was a very rough day for the stock market. More specifically, it was rough for the hottest stocks in town—semiconductors, chips, and AI-related names.
All weekend long, social media was buzzing about a potential “Black Monday.”
At the time of writing, futures are up a decent amount.
The big question remains: Is this a dead-cat bounce, or was Friday nothing more than the market adjusting a little?
If Friday’s lows are broken, more selling will likely follow.
2. Jobs Data Changes the Narrative
On Friday, we got more color on the labor market. Both U.S. and Canadian job numbers came in much better than expected.
The Canadian unemployment rate fell, while the U.S. unemployment rate remained unchanged.
One interesting thing to note: bond yields jumped on the news.
This week is also packed with market-moving events:
Wednesday: U.S. CPI (inflation report) and Bank of Canada rate decision
Thursday: ECB rate announcement and U.S. PPI (inflation at producer level)
Potential for volatility is there.
3. Gold Just Broke a Major Technical Level
On Friday, gold broke below its 200-day moving average. This is the first time something like this has happened since 2023 and should be taken seriously.
A retest of the moving average is certainly possible. However, if gold cannot reclaim that level, it wouldn’t be surprising to see additional selling pressure.
On the downside, watch the $4,100-$4,000 area very closely. If that level breaks, the case for a move toward approximately $3,300 becomes stronger.
On the upside, the 200-day moving average will likely act as resistance. Above that, additional resistance sits at the 50-day moving average.
In fact, the 50-day moving average has been acting as a major selling point, with gold reacting strongly to it.
4. Headline Roulette: Oil Traders Buckle Up
Israel continued bombing Lebanon despite President Trump’s calls for restraint. In response, Iran launched missiles into Israel last night.
Trump then urged Israel not to retaliate, but it responded anyway.
Oil prices jumped.
This morning, Iran is saying its actions against Israel are over—unless Israel decides to bomb Lebanon again.
As a result, oil is giving back some of its gains at the time of writing.
This is a classic case of headline roulette. Don’t get run over by it.
5. Bitcoin Holds the Line While CAD Faces a Big Test
Bitcoin held the $61,000 level very well on Friday and throughout the weekend. This area also lines up with the lows we saw back in February.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index rallied on Friday but is giving back some of those gains this morning.
The Canadian dollar (CAD) is now testing a major support level against the U.S. dollar. Let’s see what happens. Wednesday’s Bank of Canada rate announcement could be a major catalyst. It’s very difficult to see the Bank of Canada hiking rates from here.
The Canadian dollar could either pop or drop depending on the Bank’s outlook for growth and inflation.
And keep in mind: Bubbles rarely end quietly. They tend to pop in spectacular ways.