1. The Bond Market Is Flashing Warning Signs
The bond market is showing some signs of stress. Yields are rising across the board, and it’s not just U.S. yields. Global yields are climbing too.
Look at almost any country, and you’ll likely see yields moving higher.
This is scary, given how much debt is out there.
Looking at headlines around private credit, housing, junk debt/high yield, etc.
2. Stocks Are Riding on Hope
The stock market is directly tied to what happens with rates. Right now, there’s a lot of hope out there that nothing will go wrong. People are really trying to justify the valuations.
But, what’s happening with yields could hurt the stock market badly.
Once again, we are entering the fourth quarter of 2026 with a lot more uncertainty. Be careful, there could be some shock. But make no mistake, this is not a recommendation to sell or anything of that sort. Market can remain resilient longer than one would expect. Being careful just keeps you ready in case something breaks.
3. Gold’s $4,300 Magnet
Gold is back at $4,300. This level has acted like a magnet over the past few weeks. Let’s see how it closes today. If it closes below $4,300, that will be significant.
Gold is also trading close to its 50-day moving average. Let’s see whether it acts as support or resistance.
The Japanese yen has jumped against the U.S. dollar this morning. Was there another intervention? Keep in mind, Japan is one of those risks out there that very little attention is being given to.
The Canadian dollar is losing some strength against the U.S. dollar. Is it a good time to start looking at U.S. dollar GICs for Canadians?
4. Oil: Deal Today, Tanker Tomorrow
The oil market is really trying to figure out what’s happening.
One day, we get news stories about a potential deal between the U.S. and Iran that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The next day, we see a headline suggesting a tanker was shot in the Strait of Hormuz.
The oil market is not easy. It’s volatile, and the last thing you want to do is bet the farm on it. Allocate wisely.
Also keep in mind, there is significant escalation happening between Russia and Ukraine. This could impact energy markets as well.
5. Bitcoin’s Make-or-Break Retest
Bitcoin is currently retesting a breakout. If it breaks below $82,000, the breakout would be invalid, and the price could come down to $75,000–$76,000. But if the retest is successful, we could potentially be looking at $100,000 Bitcoin. Keep in mind, Bitcoin is looking for a narrative.
What’s also interesting is that there’s a lot of noise about the U.S. potentially invading Canada. The likelihood of that happening is very minimal, but it’s in the news, and everybody seems to be freaking out.
I learned something recently from a very experienced person in financial press: people generally don’t want to learn. They either want to confirm or they are just curious.