1. Canada’s Economy Avoids a Technical Recession?
Canada’s GDP for the month of April came in hotter than expected, rising 0.5%. Looking at the early estimate for May, GDP is expected to grow another 0.1%.
Assuming June posts flat growth, Canada could officially move out of a technical recession.
But don’t get too excited…
Canada still faces serious economic headwinds in the near term that could keep growth stagnant at best. And a stagnant economy can often be one of the most painful environments for businesses and consumers.
2. The Japanese Yen Is Back in the Spotlight
The Japanese yen has weakened to above 162 against the U.S. dollar.
This morning, the currency had a sharp swing, with some suspecting another Bank of Japan intervention. Nothing official yet (at the time of writing)
Let’s see. This story is still developing.
Once again, Japan remains one of the most overlooked stories in global markets.
Between the weak currency, higher interest rates, and the carry trade, it has the potential to send shockwaves through global financial markets. Very few eyes on this.
3. Gold Holds the Line at $4,000
The $4,000 level is proving to be very strong support for gold. It’s behaving much like the $4,500 level did before eventually breaking down. Round numbers often become important psychological support and resistance levels.
Current market sentiment generally expects gold to finish 2026 somewhere between $4,200 and $4,500.
Also, don’t forget: a death cross continues to form on the chart.
As for silver, it’s seeing a decent bounce today. However, the technical picture has deteriorated somewhat. More work is needed before any meaningful bullish confirmation. Silver likely needs to reclaim the $61-$63 range before attracting attention.
4. The S&P 500 Reclaims a Key Technical Level
The S&P 500 has bounced back above its 50-day moving average. For now, that’s a bullish development.
We’ve seen this pattern play out repeatedly over the past several years. However, if the index struggles to stay above the 50-day moving average, additional selling pressure could quickly return.
Beyond the chart, there’s also growing discussion that investors are losing interest in the Magnificent 7.
Another interesting development and once again very few eyes on this: Insurance stocks appear to be breaking out of the downtrend that began in early 2025. Worth watching.
5. Bitcoin Weakens While the Canadian Dollar Strengthens
After repeatedly struggling to move above $60,000, Bitcoin may now be setting up for another move lower. At the time of writing, it’s trading around $58,000. The next major support doesn’t appear until roughly $53,000, with an even bigger psychological level sitting at $50,000.
Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar is catching a bid following the stronger-than-expected GDP report.
Also keep an eye on the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY). If it breaks above 102, watch for the possibility of a pain trade in emerging markets.
Finally, WTI crude oil continues to trade below its 200-day moving average.