1. Oil Blinks — But Don’t Relax
WTI is down about 1.5% this morning, pulling back below $94 after Trump quietly removed sanctions on Russian oil to help ease supply. Cleary, Trump is winning? Brent punched through $100 and seems to be holding well for now .
Know this: prices are up over 25% since the Iran conflict started, and Iran’s new supreme leader is still pledging to keep the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed.
This morning’s dip may just be relief, not a resolution. Don’t get run over thinking the worst is behind us. We are going into the weekend, and that’s when we know news flow gets busy.
Anyways, oil is becoming noisy and technical.
2. The S&P 500 on the Ropes
As I write this, the S&P 500 is bouncing modestly, but know that we are seeing rallies being sold lately.
Plus, there’s a clear downtrend at play here. The first real technical test on the upside is the 50-day moving average — watch that level closely.
Keep in mind: 6,600-6,500 is a big level to watch. If that breaks, there are potential for more downside.
Once again, don’t tell you weren’t warned about it. This is the “punch in the face,” I had been mentioning.
3. The Bond Market Is Telling You Something — Is Anyone Listening?
The 10-year Treasury yield is sitting around 4.25% this morning, up roughly 15 basis points over the last two sessions alone. In isolation that sounds manageable and not a big deal really.
But zoom out. There’s a $7+ trillion private credit market — direct lending to leveraged companies, most of it floating-rate. Every time yields ratchet higher, the debt-service burden on thousands of companies that don’t trade publicly quietly gets heavier.
There’s no ticker flashing red on this. But when rates stay “higher for longer” and a geopolitical oil shock pushes the yields higher, that’s the kind of thing that blows up quietly. Private credit already running into the wall recently.
4. Gold Holds $5,100 While the Dollar Eyes a Key Level
Gold is holding around $5,100 – choppy though.
Silver remains very choppy, and in a range. It’s a wide range, but if you are looking for big moves, you need the metal to get out of the range.
Meanwhile, the DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) is climbing toward 100 — a level that matters both psychologically and technically. Normally a stronger dollar pressures gold and metals — so worth watching closely.
The gold-to-silver ratio is still historically stretched – silver isn’t as attractive as it was few months ago. I think silver is still the more interesting story here, but it’s also more volatile now, and everyone is trying to chase. Allocate wisely that’s all.
5. North American Labour Data — The Numbers Don’t Lie
Two labour market prints worth attention
First, Canada lost 84,000 jobs in February — Statistics Canada just dropped that number. Unemployment jumped to 6.7%, and more than 100,000 full-time positions were wiped out in a single month.
Why? Tariffs and U.S. trade uncertainty are getting the blame, and makes sense. But, not a comfortable place for the Bank of Canada to be.
Then, South of the border, the January JOLTS report drops today. January job openings came in at 6.9 million — could potentially be some sort of seasonal thing here, but the trend has been down. This is early view on how job market is looking.