1. Fed Day: Rates, Powell, and the Economy
It’s Fed Day.
At 2:00 PM, we find out whether the Federal Reserve changes interest rates or not (likely unchanged). There’s also a press conference at 2:30 PM, which will be worth watching to understand how the Fed is thinking.
Big picture: The U.S. jobs market is showing signs of serious cooling, while inflation has remained somewhat sticky. There’s also the ongoing risk of the U.S. economy taking a hit as the Trump administration paves a new path for global trade — although, for now, the economic data still looks okay.
Don’t forget: The Federal Reserve’s dual mandate — maximum employment and stable prices.
2. Bank of Canada: Hold for Now?
It’s also Bank of Canada (BoC) day.
We’ll hear from the BoC, and a rate hold is the most likely outcome.
That said, the press conference will be worth listening to, especially for commentary around tariff-related noise. I suspect they revise their economic projections higher for now (the last three months were decent for Canada). If that happens, expect plenty of noise around the idea that rate hikes could be ahead — not cuts.
3. Fed Day Volatility: The First Move Is Usually a Lie
It’s Fed Day, and we know how the stock market behaves.
Until 2:00 PM, expect choppy trading with no clear direction. Between 2:00 and 2:30 PM, equity indices will move — up or down — and there’s usually follow-through for the rest of the day. But remember: the initial move isn’t always the correct move.
It takes time for markets to digest the data. The first reaction is often noise. The real trend usually shows up later — Thursday or Friday.
4. Gold & Silver Mania: Volatility Is the New Price
Gold at $5,200. Silver at $114.
We’re now seeing significant moves in precious metals on a regular basis. Price swings are getting wild, and optimism — even FOMO — is becoming very real.
Over the past few weeks, more people have talked to me about gold and silver than anything else. Most questions are about how and what to buy. Some have even gotten angry when I’ve told them to be careful.
Can these metals go higher? Yes. But understand this: you’re also buying a lot more volatility now with them.
5. Bitcoin, the Dollar, and Big Macro Shifts
Bitcoin is retesting its 50-day moving average.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is now below 96.50 — a major level I’ve talked about many times here. What’s interesting is how fast the decline has been. Could more downside be ahead for the greenback?
The Canadian dollar is making big moves, with potential for a major trend break.
Meanwhile, the oil market continues to position for potential war risk — or is it all dollar-related?