1. A Quiet Week, but Two Big Events Matter
It’s a relatively slow week for economic data. However, there are two major events worth watching.
First: The Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes are due tomorrow. They are worth watching because there is a lot of Fed speculation, and markets are questioning if interest rates may need to move higher rather than lower.
Second: On Friday, Statistics Canada releases its employment report. Current expectations call for just over 11,000 jobs to be added. But keep in mind that Statistics Canada has a history of producing surprisingly random and volatile employment numbers.
2. The S&P 500 Is Climbing, but Something Is Missing
The S&P 500 continues moving toward the 7,600 level, but trading volume has been declining over the past several sessions. That’s something we are watching closely.
Meanwhile, MU stock is now down 21.5% from its highs, officially putting the stock into bear market territory. Will the weakness continue?
At the same time, insurance stocks continue to catch a bid. Several major downtrends in that sector have broken, and it remains a relatively overlooked trade for now. Most people are still focused on tech stocks.
Industrials may also be starting a fresh move higher. Watching this closely as well.
3. Gold Tests Resistance While Copper Holds On
In the near term, watching $4,200 on gold. A close above that level could signal a break in the short-term downtrend and attract buyers.
Silver remains technically weak for now. A close above $63.50 is needed before some relief rally.
As for copper, it briefly dipped below $6.00 not long ago before recovering. If copper breaks below $5.80, the downside could get worse. On the upside, $6.60 remains the key resistance level.
Coffee prices experienced a wild rally yesterday but pulling back a little bit too. There’s been a very sharp move up here.
4. Japan’s Bond Market Remains a Global Risk
Japanese bond yields continue moving higher, and the yen remains close to its 40-year lows against the U.S. dollar.
There has been a lot of speculation about another Bank of Japan intervention, but so far, nothing meaningful has materialized.
Why keep talking about this?
Japan is one of the largest holders of U.S. Treasury securities.
If the Japanese government and central bank continue intervening to support the yen, they may eventually need to reduce those Treasury holdings. That could have significant implications for bond yields and the broader financial system.
Once again, this is probably one of the most overlooked risk out there.
5. The AI Story Depends on Data Centers
If you’re bullish on artificial intelligence, then you need to pay attention to what’s happening with data centers. There is a growing public backlash against large-scale data center developments, and the news flow is becoming very negative.
We recently shared some food for thought on Zulfiqar Research about what could happen if data center spending begins to slow. It’s worth checking out.
Bitcoin is once again testing the $63,000-$65,000 range.
The Canadian dollar setting up for another move lower against the U.S. dollar?
Toronto-area home sales increased in June and during the first half of 2026. That’s certainly an encouraging sign—but it’s still too early to know whether it’s the beginning of a sustained recovery.