Gold Prices so Far in 2026: A Volatile Start to the Year
Gold prices have been extremely volatile since the beginning of 2026.
Gold started the year around $4,348.40.
In late January, gold made an all-time high of $5,608.35, and a low of $4,098.73 around late March. That’s roughly a $1,510 range from all-time highs to lows made in March. And that was just the first three months of the year.
One could certainly argue there were reasons why gold went up so quickly, and why it went down. But, if you are an investor, you are likely asking what’s next for gold prices.
So, here are some insights into what’s happening with the yellow precious metal. This is a technical-heavy outlook. Zulfiqar Research will publish fundamental views in the coming days, so stay tuned!
A Long-Term View of Gold Prices
Now, to begin with, let’s look at a very long-term chart of gold prices – essentially since gold started to freely trade.
Chart Courtesy of Stockcharts.com
There’s a pattern here: after years of rallying, you see a period of decline in gold prices.
The decline in the early 1970s was short.
Then, after the peak in 1980, the trend downward was very painful to watch.
The 2011 peak in gold prices was just shy of $2,000 an ounce, and it was followed by four years of decline.
Since 2015, gold prices have been rising. 2025 marked the 10th year the yellow precious metal moved higher.
Something to note: the last bull run in gold prices (from 1999 to 2011) was 12 years.
Why the 2026 Price Action Looks Eerily Familiar
There’s one more thing to note here, and it’s the most important: whenever we have seen a peak in gold prices – in 1980 and in 2011 especially – the price action has been very similar. A massive rally as the price hit all-time highs, and then a robust sell-off.
Then, the price could never really test the all-time high again.
The move in gold prices we saw in early 2026 is very significant. Looking at the chart, comparing it to previous peaks, it looks awfully similar – a quick move to all-time highs and then robust selling.
Make no mistake: we are not saying the top is in place and that’s all for gold. But, ignoring what happened could just be a bad idea. And, we are saying this by looking at historical evidence.
If gold prices test $5,400-$5,600 and do not make a new high quickly, then this thesis will have some legs.
The 20-Year Chart: A Classic Cup-and-Handle Breakout
Now, moving on to a 20-year view of gold prices.
Chart Courtesy of Stockcharts.com
Between 2011 and around 2024, gold prices kept finding resistance at around $2,000. Finally, in 2024, there was a clear break, and that move has continued since.
Mind you: there was a cup-and-handle pattern forming between 2011 and 2024.
Usually, technical analysts set a target price by measuring the distance between the bottom of the cup and the right peak. Then, they add that to the breakout from the handle portion.
Here, the distance between the bottom and the top of the cup was around $1,000. As the break occurred, around $3,000 was a very reasonable target. At around $3,000, there was a little bit of hesitancy, but that was crushed very quickly.
Gold Breaks Below Its 50-Day Moving Average
Now, looking more closely…
Chart Courtesy of Stockcharts.com
Gold prices broke below their 50-day moving average in March, and what’s important to note here is that a lot of selling followed. This was essentially the first clear break away from this moving average since at least 2023.
But, gold was able to hold the 200-day moving average very well. In fact, it looked like there were buyers just sitting and waiting to load up on the precious metal.
Where Are Gold Prices Headed Next?
There are key levels that investors must keep in mind.
First, $5,600 is a major level.
If gold prices break above $5,600, then it wouldn’t be shocking to see a significant move to the upside that takes gold well above $6,000 an ounce.
If gold prices do not break above $5,600, or we don’t even get a test of those levels, then it would be time to be cautious.
On the downside, around $4,100 is significant. If that breaks, there could be a lot more selling. In this case, the next support might not come in until $3,400-$3,600.
All in all, there’s a giant range at play at the moment – $5,600 to $4,100. A move above or below this range will tell the direction. It could be a while until this range breaks. There could very well be significant choppiness for the rest of the year.
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