1. CPI and PPI Both Came In Hot — The Fed Is Backed Into a Corner
Yesterday, April CPI hit 3.8% year-over-year — highest since May 2023.
Then PPI came in even hotter this morning: +1.4% for the month (biggest jump since March 2022) and +6.0% annually.
Understand that PPI is the pipeline — it tells you where consumer prices are going, not where they’ve been. The Fed is boxed in, and the question has shifted from “when do they cut?” to “do they actually have to hike?”
Have you looked at the yields? US30Y is above 5%, US10Y is trying to break higher.
2. Oil Holds $100 — The Strait of Hormuz Isn’t Opening Anytime Soon
WTI crude is around $100–101 at the time of writing – still anchored above triple digits.
The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed since the U.S.-Israel war on Iran began in late February — about a fifth of global oil and LNG flows through that chokepoint.
Trump called the ceasefire “on life support” and Iran’s response “stupid.” Don’t be surprised if oil stays messy through the spring.
But, its not just oil market. Massive amount of fertilizer is also stuck. Plus, copper market is finding out sulphuric acid is also stuck. Natural gas, aluminum, and other things also impacted.
3. Trump Lands in Beijing — Watch Every Headline
Trump arrived in Beijing tonight for a two-day state visit with Xi — first since 2017.
He brought Musk, Tim Cook, and Jensen Huang, which tells you this is as much about tech and trade as geopolitics.
The big market question: does anything come out of these talks on Iran and oil? WTI already faded slightly today on the hope alone. If nothing materializes, oil snaps right back.
Also, expecting to hear about rare earths/critical minerals, EVs, export controls etc.
Watching every headline because two massive powers meeting, and both trying to gain control.
4. Copper Hits All-Time Highs — Dr. Copper Has Something to Say
Copper hit around $6.60/lb on COMEX today — a fresh all-time high — with LME briefly touching $14,000/tonne.
Chinese industrial demand is apparently holding up, the Iran war is crimping supply through sulphuric acid shortages, and AI infrastructure is eating copper by the ton.
On top of this, there’s noise about satellite images showing smelters weren’t so active?
Worth noting: “Dr. Copper” doesn’t make all-time highs when the global economy is rolling over. It is literally suggesting the opposite – are we on a cusp of major global growth period? Or is this just a near-term supply and demand thing?
5. Stocks Only Go Up?
The S&P 500 was a roller coaster ride yesterday – down a bit, and then dip buyers came in.
Do stocks only go up?
The market has been coasting on some beliefs that may not be true. Rates are going higher, inflation isn’t taming, economy…. still ok? Earnings are going to be stellar?
Indices look good because very few companies are holding them higher. Underneath, there are a lot of problems.