1. War Is Back on the Radar
War is back on.
Trump is now calling for taking over the Strait of Hormuz.
WTI is trading around $75, while Brent is getting close to $80. Watch the 200-day moving average. Will it be rejected again?
Mind you, there’s a lot of noise. Things can change very quickly.
2. Rotation Continues Beneath the Surface
Very short term, watch for a close above Friday’s high. If that happens, the odds of 7,600 increase. On the downside, the 50-day moving average remains a major level to watch.
Healthcare and financials seem to be leading a bit here.
There’s some sort of rotation happening from the exciting names to the boring names.
We are watching it closely.
3. Gold and Silver Under Pressure Again
Gold and silver are selling off a bit today.
The catalyst is the rising U.S. dollar and bond yields. As a result, these metals look less attractive.
A close below $4,000 on gold could be dangerous.
The silver chart continues to look bleak. A painful move could follow below $56. It’s very possible it tests that broken $50 zone.
4. Inflation and the Bank of Canada Take Center Stage
Tomorrow, we get U.S. consumer inflation data. Expectations are for a reading below 4%, but let’s see.
On Wednesday, we get the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI).
For Canadians, Wednesday also brings the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision. The Bank will likely hold rates, but the press conference and statement will be worth watching. The Bank of Canada has a difficult job these days, with so many policy issues unfolding.
5. Bitcoin Needs a Story
Bitcoin is selling off a bit. It has built resistance around $64,500, and a break above it could bring in buyers. Keep in mind, though, that it needs a narrative.
There’s a lot of data center noise, but don’t overlook the negative news flow.
Remember: either you’re being sold to, or you’re buying in. You end up owning something in both cases, but the results can be very different. Know what you own and why… so you’re not surprised.