1. The War Continues to Shape the Market
There isn’t any major economic data due today, but the war in the Middle East continues.
It’s creating a lot of noise around one big question: What happens to inflation?
We think there’s also demand destruction happening, and that’s concerning. Imagine a situation where people aren’t spending much, but prices keep rising.
What happens to the economy then?
2. More Tariffs on Canada
Trump is imposing more tariffs on Canada.
The list of affected goods is quite extensive.
This is likely more about pressure than anything else.
Still, it’s not good for the Canadian economy, which has already been struggling to find direction. More tariff headlines only hurt business sentiment.
The companies affected are likely trying to figure out what to do next.
The Canadian dollar (CAD) is reacting a bit.
3. The S&P 500 Is at an Important Level
We got a second consecutive close below the 50-day moving average on the S&P 500.
This morning, the index opened back above that moving average.
Let’s see how it closes.
We can’t stress this enough: looking at history, we could see sellers take control if the index remains below the 50-day moving average.
Keep in mind that earnings season is still underway. Know what you own and why.
Stop-losses are never a bad idea.
4. Bitcoin Is Trying to Break Higher
There’s a solid move happening in Bitcoin.
If it can break above $67,000, it wouldn’t be surprising to see it test the 200-day moving average. Keep in mind that the 200-day moving average acted as strong resistance back in May.
Also, Bitcoin has been trading below its 200-day moving average since November of last year.
The key catalysts right now appear to be slowing inflation and the possibility of interest rate cuts. We also think it’s possible that some of the money leaving AI is finding its way back into crypto.
The one thing still missing is a compelling narrative.
5. Oil, Gold & Japan Remain in Focus
Oil is testing its 50-day moving average once again.
Gold is bouncing, with $4,000 remaining a major battleground.
Bond yields and the U.S. dollar are both moving higher.
Is the Japanese yen setting up for another big move lower? Higher oil prices would only add more pressure to the currency. Japan remains one of the most overlooked stories in the market, but it has the potential to create significant whiplash across the global financial system.