1. U.S. Jobs Are Rolling Over
We just got more confirmation that the U.S. job market is starting to turn — and the trend is getting worse.
Only 50,000 jobs were added in December, while October and November were revised down by 76,000.
But, the unemployment rate remains low — for now.
But once again, every major jobs data point is flashing warning signs. Remember: the Federal Reserve has two mandates — employment and inflation.
2. Canada: Stable, But Cracks Are Forming
The Canadian job market looks somewhat stable — but it’s losing momentum. After three solid months, Canada added just 8,000 jobs, “well” above expectations.
One key detail: full-time jobs increased, while part-time jobs declined.
Still, the unemployment rate ticked up to 6.8% in December. There are now 1.6 million unemployed Canadians, up 73,000 in just one month.
3. Extreme Bullishness Is a Risk
Everyone is extremely bullish on the stock market. I get it — “nothing is breaking.”
But there’s no bearish argument out there — even a bad one.
Funds are reportedly short the VIX at record levels.
We’re also told nothing can go wrong.
That’s exactly what makes me very uncomfortable. Speaking from experience, just when you start hearing complacency, usually some big drop is near by.
4. Metals: Volatility Has Changed the Game
If you’re trading metals, you need to understand this: average daily ranges have exploded. That means bigger price swings, almost every day.
In silver, a 5% intraday move (low to high) is no longer rare — it used to be.
So trade wisely.
You can be right on direction and still lose money if position sizing and timing are off — especially with options.
5. Bitcoin, Dollar, and Policy Noise
Bitcoin is finding support around its 50-day moving average — let’s see if it holds.
The U.S. dollar index is starting to look better, with noticeable improvement recently.
No final ruling on tariffs, but the message seems clear: they’re staying one way or another.
Meanwhile, Trump is issuing orders to buy $200B in mortgage bonds — and homebuilder stocks like it. The real question: is this a one-off, or the start of something bigger? Sometimes, the action matters more than the dollar amount.