1. The Jobs Report: Not a Miss, a Reversal
The February jobs report dropped this morning and it’s ugly.
The U.S. economy shed 92,000 jobs — the forecast was a gain of around 59,000 jobs. That’s not a miss. That’s a reversal.
To add more salt to the injury, December was quietly revised to -17,000 from +48,000, which means the last few months look worse than we thought. Shocking.
Oh while this happens, have to you looked at oil prices and what bond yields are doing? Yields actually spiked on this massive miss. Is bond market trying to price in stagflation?
2. WTI Oil Over $88, BRENT over $91: The Strait of Hormuz Is Not a Drill
WTI crude is sitting around $88/barrel right now, Brent just touched $91 — highest levels since 2024.
The U.S.-Iran war is in its seventh day and roughly 20% of global oil supplies transiting the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted. This isn’t a risk premium. Physical barrels are being affected.
Qatar’s energy minister raised the possibility of $150/barrel if the Strait stays shut in two to three weeks. Don’t dismiss that number.
With this, gas prices are going to be impacted as well. And, there’s a lot of “this will be over soon,” Just know that it will take few weeks at the very minimum to get back to normal if the Strait opens right now, and everyone going to 100% capacity tomorrow morning.
3. Silver Setting Up For A big Move Down?
With Silver trading around $82-$82 this morning, there are few things to keep in mind…
- Rallies are being sold.
- Silver trades below its 50-day moving average
- Excitement is leaving.
Remember when this metal was touching $120 and banks were calling for $300+? Parabolic moves feel permanent right up until they don’t. Sentiment on silver was as frothy as I’ve seen in years — I warned about that. The damage may not be done. Watch the $75-$70 level closely if it gets there. A break below it could hurt.
4. The S&P 500 Loses 6,800 — Now Watch the Next Level
The S&P 500 defended 6,800 yesterday – almost felt like machines and dip buyers were really hard at work.
But, this morning, it opened below it. Let’s see how it goes. Do we get a retest? Do the dip buyers come in on Friday… going into a weekend with a war escalating on the other side of the world?
If this is a break below 6,800, don’t be shocked to see 6,500 fairly quick. Also, job numbers, higher yields and private credit worries might not help either here. In fancier terms, we could get a meaningful repricing in equities.
Remember when I said, “we could get punch in the face move in stocks,” this has a potential to be one.
5. Dollar, Bitcoin, And Some Food For Thought
Bitcoin continues to be correlated with stocks vs anything else. It’s a risk asset. Currently, risk being taken off, so bitcoin is falling.
Dollar index (DXY) is at an interesting level. A break above 100 could be meaningful here.
Zoom out — the macro backdrop just got a lot more complicated. There are a bunch of moving parts now than just “what will trump do?” or “what will the Fed do?”.
Worth keeping in mind that markets hate uncertainty, and we are starting to get abundance of it at the moment from all over. If uncertainty increases, flight to cash could easily be a thing. Setting stops, reviewing portfolios may not be a bad idea right now.