1. Inflation Surprise & Two Massive U.S. Data Days Ahead
Canadian inflation came in lower than expected — a welcome data point.
Tomorrow and Thursday are shaping up to be the biggest data days for the U.S. for the rest of the year.
Tomorrow: U.S. jobs report. Expectations are around 50k jobs, but remember — the Fed has openly stated that government data may be overstating job gains by ~60k per month. How will market reach?
Thursday: U.S. inflation data. This has consistently been a market-moving event. No reason to think this one will be different.
2. The Market Is Showing Its Hand on AI
Understand this clearly: the market is talking — and you can’t ignore it.
There’s visible concern around AI-related names.
Look at what happened recently to ORCL and AVGO. Before that, META. This stress is now showing up in and around NVDA, AMD, and the broader AI complex.
FRMI is another example of the market quietly flashing warning signs.
This doesn’t mean AI is dead — AI is here to stay. But valuations will have to be defended. Don’t be complacent.
3. A Quiet but Important Shift Inside the S&P 500
In case you haven’t noticed…
The S&P 500 has been essentially flat since late October, unable to push meaningfully higher.
At the same time, the S&P 500 Equal-Weight Index has made a new all-time high last week.
What does this tell us? Something I’ve been saying for a while: The biggest weights are holding the index back.
The equal-weight strength suggests rotation — money moving out of crowded winners and into laggards.
4. Metals, Energy & the Big Macro Levels
The Gold-to-Silver ratio has now dropped below 70. If it moves toward 45, silver still has a lot of upside. But don’t lose sight of the big picture — and don’t forget why silver is moving higher in the first place.
For gold, $4,250 is now an important level. A clean break of $4,380–$4,400 is needed to bring in another wave of buyers.
Oil is sitting at a major support level. A break lower could be dangerous. If it holds, upside still looks capped — unless geopolitical risks escalate
Uranium and rare earth plays remain subdued for now.
5. Dollar Down, Crypto Stuck, Canadian Housing Still Cold
The U.S. Dollar Index continues to drop. Keep an eye on 96.5 — that’s a key level.
Bitcoin simply hasn’t shown enough firepower to push higher. There’s also no major catalyst right now. Watch closely if BTC moves into the $82k–$85k range.
In Canada:
- Home sales fell nearly 11% year-over-year in November
- Home prices are down about 2% YoY
- Listings are up 8.5% YoY
The winter in Canadian housing continues. That said — if you’re a buyer, can afford it, and have patience, this may be the time to start looking. Deals are plentiful. Negotiation power is back. It’s no longer madness.