1. The Fed Held — But the Message Hit Like a Punch in the Face
The Fed kept rates at 3.5–3.75% for the second straight meeting. No surprise there. But the new dot plot? That’s where it gets uncomfortable. Its looking like no cuts at all in 2026 — one more hawk than December. The one cut they’re still penciling in is barely hanging on.
Powell said the inflation outlook is now tracking toward 2.7% for 2026, up from 2.5% in December.
His read on the oil shock: upward pressure on prices, downward pressure on spending and employment. Both at the same time. Is this stagflation?
2. Strait of Hormuz: The ‘20% of Global Oil’ Problem Nobody Can Fix Right Now
This is the story I’ve been flagging for weeks, and now it’s impossible to ignore. The Strait of Hormuz — the chokepoint that handles roughly 20% of the world’s daily oil supply — has been effectively closed since early March.
Iran’s new supreme leader has made it clear it’s not reopening anytime soon. As I write this, Brent crude is sitting around $112 a barrel; WTI is at $96. Citi is calling $120 near-term. Goldman already raised its forecasts.
Some are calling this the largest oil supply disruption since the 1970s energy crisis. Think about what $120–130 oil does to inflation, to airline margins, to consumer spending, and many other thing. The IEA has agreed to release 400 million barrels from strategic reserves — helpful, but not a fix.
3. S&P 500 Breaking Down — Watch the Levels
The S&P 500 closed at 6,624 yesterday — its lowest close of 2026. The market is getting hit from both sides at once: a hawkish Fed that’s not riding to the rescue, and an oil spike that acts like a tax on everything.
I’m watching the 200-day moving average closely. It will be tested today very likely. A clean break below that level typically opens the door to more selling.
Tech doesn’t love high oil or high rates. Don’t be surprised if this gets messier before it calms down. Let’s see.
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4. Carnage In Metals
Gold hit an all-time high of $5,589 recently. As I write this, spot gold is trading around $4,500, and it wasn’t pretty among the miners yesterday, and might hurt even more today. Mind you: if $4,500-$4,300 doesn’t hold, gold can drop down to $4,000 very quick.
Silver, as I write this, is trading $66.75. As I have said, $70-$72 was a big support. If we get a close below it, this could get even more ugly.
Look, a healthy pull back is good. These two metals were getting way too hot.
Why are gold and silver falling? Take a look at the yields. Higher rates impact these metals. Plus, they got too correlated with overall market, so as stocks sell, metals are dropping. I also think some sort of liquidity issue happening somewhere. And, there’s also U.S. dollar catching a bid.
5. Canada: TSX, Loonie, and the Bank of Canada’s Tough Spot
The TSX dropped 1.87% yesterday, led by resource stocks taking the worst of it – has been trading below the 50-day moving average for few days now.
Canadian headline inflation came in at 1.8% in February, well below the Bank of Canada’s target, which normally would be a green light for cuts.
But the Bank of Canada held in March, and I think the reasoning is pretty clear: the oil shock and trade uncertainty make cutting right now feel reckless. Canada is an oil producer, so higher crude is a double-edged sword — good for energy revenues, bad if a global slowdown follows.
The BoC is in a tough spot, and the market knows it. Watching closely. CAD dropping against the USD says something too.