1. Silver Is Getting Crowded
Silver trading ranges are getting wild. Volatility is rising fast, and many new buyers who’ve never looked at silver before are now jumping in.
That usually means one thing: speculation is picking up. There’s a lot of noise, and silver is becoming a crowded trade.
Always know what you’re buying and why. Sometimes you’re buying more risk than reward. Other times, more reward than risk. Right now, silver deserves some thinking/rationality — not blind excitement.
2. Canadian Housing: Supply Is Finally Showing Up
Canadian housing starts rose 5.6% year-over-year in 2025. The biggest increases came from Toronto, Montreal, and Vancouver.
Is the housing market getting better? It does look like new supply is coming online.
I also wonder how much of this growth is rental units, given the favorable incentives for building them. And maybe this helps explain why rents are finally coming down hard.
3. Oil: The 200-Day Moving Average Strikes Again
Trump de-escalated Iran-related tensions, and crude oil reacted almost instantly. The oil market was clearly pricing in war risk.
From a technical angle, WTI crude touched its 200-day moving average and rejected. For the past 1.5 years, WTI has struggled to hold above this level.
Some quick math: After rejecting the 200-day moving average WTI has dropped ~10% on average. We have seen this about four times. There were two instance where there was a break, but then it came down.
Not a recommendation — just an observation.
4. S&P 500 Near a Decision Point
The S&P 500 is hovering just below 7,000, and price action is getting choppy.
What’s interesting is the “don’t fight the White House” narrative building up.
Yes, stocks can go higher. But fundamentals eventually matter. There are a lot of reasons to own stocks at the moment, but don’t forget market does have those reversion to the mean events and when they do happen, it gets ugly very quickly.
5. Bitcoin, Yields, and the Dollar
Bitcoin is back near $95K, but still can’t break higher.
Meanwhile, U.S. yields are starting to pop. The 10-year at 4.2% is a key level — a sustained move above it could be dangerous for risk assets. Especially since we’re being told rate cuts may be limited.
PM Carney is in China, and interestingly, there’s not much noise from the U.S. Makes you wonder — is he negotiating on their behalf too? Or am I overthinking it?
Finally, the U.S. Dollar Index is starting to look constructive.