1. It’s Beyond The Strait Now
WTI crude is past $103 a barrel as I write this — with a trading range today already spanning $96 to $119. The Iran war is entering week two with no off-ramp in sight. Ships aren’t moving through the strait. We are now also seeing oil infrastructure getting targeted.
Iraq cut production roughly 70%. Kuwait, UAE, and Qatar have all declared “force majeure” on energy production.
This is probably the largest oil supply shock in modern history — roughly 20 million barrels a day at risk. Don’t get too comfortable with $103. The upside scenario here is a lot uglier than the downside.
If there is some de-escalation, it comes down hard too.
2. You’ll Feel It at the Pump — But Europe and Japan Could Get Punched in the Face
Yes, higher WTI means higher gas prices at the pump. We are seeing this already. We will be told its “short-term pain,” but it’s essentially war tax we are paying.
But zoom out. The real risk here isn’t North America. Canada and the U.S. produce oil.
Countries like Japan, Germany, Italy, and South Korea produce almost none — they rely almost entirely on imports moving through or around the Middle East. A prolonged Strait closure doesn’t just raise their energy costs; it threatens supply entirely. Keep in mind that they have tried to diversify away from Russia too.
If this drags on for weeks, watch for serious economic pain in those economies. That’s a global risk that markets aren’t fully pricing yet.
3. Gold Near $5,100, Silver at $84 — Safe Haven Is On, But Be Careful
Gold is trading around $5,100 this morning — well off the January all-time high near $5,595, but holding the key $5,000 level as support. Real safe-haven demand is there and likely isn’t going away while the Middle East is on fire.
I think allocate wisely — don’t let panic turn into a chase.
Silver is around $84.37 today after one of the most violent swings in recent memory — touching $116 in January, crashing to $70 in February, and grinding back since. The industrial demand story hasn’t changed, but the paper market is running this show. If safe haven flows fade, silver falls faster than gold. I can’t stress this enough: don’t get run over.
4. The Fed Is Stuck — DXY Knocking on 100
The Fed meets March 17–18 — 97% chance of a hold, no debate at the moment. Inflation is running at 2.9%, above target for the fifth straight year, and now you’ve got oil in triple digits.
Rate cut hopes for Q1 are dead at the moment.
The DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) is pushing 99.5 right now, approaching the key 100 level. A clean break above 100 would be meaningful — watching it.
Meanwhile, the U.S. 10-year yield jumped to 4.11% today. The bond market is showing its hand on what oil at $100+ means for inflation, and what happens to rate.
5. Feeling A Lot Like 2008
I was actively following markets in 2008-2009 GFC. I made my first ever trade in 2007. In my opinion, it was one of the best learning periods.
As it stands though, it is starting to feel a lot like late 2007 and early 2008. Am I exaggerating here? No. But, I do hope I am wrong.
You see, we got oil shock that’s going to impact consumer spending, you have lack of jobs, then we have no sign of rates coming down, economy showing cracks, and opaque places like the private credit blowing up/there’s panic selling. This is a recipe for something breaking.
Just be careful out there. Keep the big picture in mind. If all these things materialize, markets across the board will feel it.