1. Peace Deal Sends Oil Tumbling
The United States and Iran have agreed to a peace deal, with the official signing expected to happen on Friday.
There still aren’t many details on what the agreement actually includes or who gets what. But it is certainly a step in the right direction. Apparently, Israel isn’t too happy with the development.
The oil market reacted very quickly.
Oil fell more than 5%, and WTI crude broke below the major $85 support level. Now, the $75-$80 range could be in play for a while until the dust settles.
Oil executives continue to argue that global stockpiles are dwindling, but the market appears to be saying things aren’t quite as bad as feared. Time will tell.
If you own oil stocks, this may be a good time to pause and reflect. A lot of garbage floated higher during the energy rally. Now, quality and fundamentals will matter more than ever.
2. Tonight’s Bank of Japan Decision Could Shake Markets
Tonight, we get the Bank of Japan’s rate decision. Most economists expect the BoJ to raise rates to 1.00% from 0.75%.
The last time the Bank of Japan raised rates back in 2024, markets got a punch in the face. Will we see something similar unfold over the coming weeks and months? Its possible.
At the same time, falling oil prices are somewhat helpful for Japan, which imports the majority of its energy needs.
This is a story needs to watched closely in the near-term at least.
3. SpaceX Mania and the Growing Supply of Stocks
The SpaceX IPO on Friday was a major success. Elon Musk is now the richest person in the world. And yes, apparently space data centers are becoming part of the conversation.
But keep this in mind: companies continue to hit the sell button on their own stock. The list keeps growing because management teams can see that investors are more than willing to absorb the supply—especially with markets sitting near all-time highs.
The party can continue for a while. But eventually, someone—or something—takes away the punch bowl.
Also remember you generally make more money by staying aligned with the market’s direction than by constantly betting against it. But stop losses matter, because markets eventually do turn.
4. Gold Finds Support While Silver Builds Momentum
Gold found significant support around $4,100 and is bouncing sharply at the time of writing. Since gold and oil were moving in opposite directions—with oil selling off—buyers stepped back into gold.
However, it’s important to keep the 200-day moving average in mind. It sits around $4,400, and that’s the big test for the metal. If gold can move above that level, the 50-day moving average becomes the next hurdle.
As for silver: it remains comfortably above its 200-day moving average. The 50-day moving average currently sits around $75, making it an important level to watch. Silver posted a solid overnight move, but it’s still an uphill battle until $90.
Meanwhile, copper remains choppy near all-time highs.
5. Tariffs, Bitcoin & the Bigger Picture
President Trump is once again talking about tariffs on France. At this point, it’s becoming somewhat comical.
Bitcoin has bounced from the $61,000 level, but it appears to be running out of momentum. Let’s see what happens next.
The Canadian dollar could be setting up for another move lower against the U.S. dollar.
Meanwhile, bond yields are easing a bit, which is encouraging.
And finally, don’t forget about the G7 meeting. Could something significant emerge from it? Probably not. But it’s still worth knowing that it’s happening.