1. Fed Day: Powell’s Last Stand
The Fed announces its rate decision at 2pm today, and nobody thinks they are moving — markets are priced for a hold at 3.5%–3.75%.
What makes today interesting is that this could be Jerome Powell’s final meeting as Fed Chair. The real question isn’t the decision — it’s what he says about oil-driven inflation and when, if ever, cuts come back into the conversation. Could he potentially pull a Jackson Hole kind of stunt?
Watch the press conference at 2:30pm. The first move is usually a lie, but the words matter a lot. Real move comes Thursday and Friday.
2. Bank Of Canada – No Cut/Hike Expected
Bank of Canada also makes rate decision today – earlier in the day – 9:45am, and then a press conference at 10:30am.
No hike or cut expected today, but it’s important to watch what is said in the statement and in the press conference.
Canada is in a tricky situation – struggling housing, pessimistic consumer, job market not doing too well, CUSMA negotiations coming up, global uncertainty, resources starting to do well but also causing some inflation, and government ramping up projects.
Watching the CAD and 5-year bond yields.
3. Oil Shock Continues…
WTI crude hit $103 a barrel this morning, with Brent touching $115 — the highest since March 27th – trying to break higher. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed from the US-Iran conflict, and talks are stalling.
Iran offered a reopening proposal, but Trump reportedly rejected it.
We are starting to see everyone catch up now – $90-$100 oil is become a base case scenario for this year at least, and that’s something that shouldn’t be ignored. $100 oil hurts demand.
Once again, a lot of focus is on the inflation spike that comes with oil higher, but very little talk about what happens on the backend of it.
4. Gold Below $4,600 — Dip or Distribution?
Gold below $4,600, and on track to be fourth red day in the past 5 trading days.
Silver getting hit too.
Classic pattern: oil surges, precious metals get sold.
Today will be interesting too as we get rate announcement from the Fed.
Potentially a bigger move could follow after 2pm, and could very well see a big reversal. Time tells more.
Don’t get run over.
5. The 80-Second Earnings
Tonight after the bell, Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, and Amazon all report — Bloomberg noted they’ll do it within an 80-second window. This is the moment the market has been building toward all week.
Can’t stress this enough: there’s a potential for a big move here in the next two days – could be up or down. There’s a lot going on. These big companies don’t just have to beat, they have to beat by a large margin, and keep in mind that stock market cares a lot about what’s next.
Having stops in place isn’t a bad idea.