1. Oil Over $100 — Worse Is Yet To Come?
WTI is at $101 as I write this, up again this morning.
The Strait of Hormuz has been closed since March 4 — that’s the waterway that carries roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply. This continues to be called the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market, and some are even saying we could be seeing 1970s style oil/gas prices.
Over the weekend, we also learned that Houthis fired missiles at Israel, and Iran rejected direct talks with the U.S. on Thursday. Also, ground troops starting to look like a reality now, and Iran has warned of severe consequences if that happens… this will all bring down oil prices down, right?
2. Gold Finds Support – Silver To Test $50?
If you have been following Gold, you may have noticed $4,400 being a strong support level for now. Past few sessions, it has been tested repeatedly and held. So, now that’s the big level to watch on the downside. One would assume tons of stops are just below that level.
Silver is sitting near $70 an ounce. If you draw a line on the chart, you will notice that $71-$72 is starting to become a resistance zone. Be very careful here.
Why is silver falling? Keep in mind, silver is more of industrial metal than precious metal. As it stands, world may be going in a slowdown mode/rising oil prices aren’t helping, and this impacts silver demand. Don’t be shocked, if selling continues silver tests the breakout…. At $50.
Big catalysts in metal have been rising dollar, and yields.
3. Stocks Keep Bleeding — Is This Morning’s Bounce Real?
The S&P 500 closed Friday at 6,368 — that was the lowest close since around September of 2025. Just like that, gains disappeared.
This morning, futures are flashing green, but you have to ask if this is dead cat or real bounce? Regardless, having some cash on hand could be very helpful at the moment.
If you look at the chart, there aren’t many reason to be bullish – S&P 500 below its 50-day moving average and the 200-day moving average, no major support level near by, momentum turning etc.
From fundamental perspective: inflation fear, yields staying elevated, problems around private credit, higher oil price impact consumer spending, jobs declining, and interestingly enough not much change to earnings outlook at the moment.
We may not be at peak uncertainty here, but there definitely value being created. First issue of Patient Capital Letter goes out on April 3rd.
4. Yields Telling A Scary Tale
It’s important to listen to the bonds market. At the moment, it’s telling a scary tale…
In matter of just couple of weeks, we have gone from everyone predicting a cut or two in 2026 to now a hike or two.
Yields on 10-year U.S. Treasury stand at 4.3% at the time of writing. 4.5% is a big level to watch.
And as repeatedly said in these pages: U.S. yields have a gravitational pull. We are seeing yields across the board rising. Canadian 5-year yield at 3.12% – up like 50bps since the beginning of March.
Both central banks are caught in the same trap: cut into an oil shock and you feed inflation; hold rates into a slowing economy and you choke growth. That’s the definition of a no-win situation.
5. Bitcoin, Currencies, & More
Bitcoin is trading below its 50-day moving average once again. $65K is a big level to watch on the downside.
The U.S. Dollar index remains strong – past few days, solid moves, and currently standing at 100. Chart currently looking bullish, too. More strength in dollar would suggest flight to safety and more pain for emerging markets.
The Canadian dollar is at 71.75 cents against the U.S. — getting weaker. The uptrend that began in late November is not broken.
Oh and private credit problems haven’t gone away. It’s a story worth keeping a tab on.