1. U.S. Jobs Data Was Shocking
U.S. jobs data was “shocking,” to say the least, with a loss of 23,000 jobs in July.
While that was the headline noise, May and June data was also revised lower by more than 100,000 jobs. Unemployment in the U.S. remains low, but it’s becoming very clear that jobs are starting to disappear.
While this is happening, the most interesting story is still Trump repeatedly calling Warsh since he became Fed chair. Is the Federal Reserve being influenced to cut rates?
2. Canada Adds 75,000 Jobs
Canada added 75,000 jobs in July. This was the third consecutive month of job gains.
An encouraging trend for now (three months of jobs growth), but it shouldn’t be forgotten that Statistics Canada numbers tend to be all over the place.
The unemployment rate is now at 6.4%.
The increase in jobs was split between full-time and part-time employment.
The Canadian dollar (CAD) is bouncing on the news.
3. Don’t Get Complacent With This Rally
The rally in the S&P 500 has been impressive.
Now, the narrative being built around “rate cuts” or “no hike” is likely to provide even more fuel.
But that doesn’t mean one should get complacent. There are tons of opportunities, but the overall market is expensive.
Being selective could be the key. And at the same time, stops never hurt.
4. Gold Is Starting to Look Interesting
Gold is catching a bid, and it could be a decent tactical long. The short-term trend is breaking higher, and rate-related noise could help propel it further.
Today’s silver close will be worth watching, as it’s sitting near a short-term resistance zone. If silver closes above $63.50, buyers could come in. If gold rallies, it’s possible silver follows to some degree.
However, silver chart still looks fragile.
Copper — still no news about tariffs. For now, it’s a noise trade.
5. Bitcoin, Japan & the Risks Everyone Is Ignoring
Bitcoin is itching to move higher as it continues to trade above its 50-day moving average. But it’s having a hard time finding excited buyers.
The Japanese yen is really worth watching. There’s a lot going on there, including a coordinated effort to keep the yen higher. There’s a big carry trade here.
The VIX is saying there isn’t much fear out there.
Meanwhile, the data center backlash continues to receive very little attention. AI is here to stay, but the rollout could be slower than expected.