Silver: The Best Performing Asset Of 2025
Silver is hands down one of the best-performing assets of 2025.
Year-to-date, at the time of writing, the gray precious metal is up well over 100%. It’s making headlines — and for good reason.
Can it go even higher? The short answer: yes. There are serious fundamental forces at play that could push silver further.
Tariffs, Inventory Drains & a Structural Deficit
One major catalyst is the ongoing tariff uncertainty. Investors are asking: what happens if the U.S. or other major buyers impose tariffs on imported silver?
This concern has already led to sharp declines in inventories — both in London and Shanghai.
At the same time, the silver market has been in a structural deficit for years. With massive amounts of capital flowing into:
- electrification
- artificial intelligence
- solar energy
…silver demand is climbing fast.
Meanwhile, ETF inflows are surging, showing rising investor appetite.
The Supply Side Is Not Ready
While demand rises, silver production remains subdued. Over the past decade, miners have found little new supply and have not significantly expanded operations.
In simple terms: the supply side is not prepared to meet today’s demand.
The Gold-to-Silver Ratio Screams “Higher Prices”
If we look at the gold-to-silver ratio, silver could have room to run. Historically, when the ratio falls toward 40, silver has surged.
At current levels, the ratio suggests $90+ silver — and potentially $100 if the ratio compresses meaningfully.
For this ratio, its basic math here. If gold-to-silver ratio drops to 40, with gold remaining at $4,300, you are looking at silver price at $107.5.
But Don’t Forget: Assets Move in Cycles
Silver, like all assets, moves in cycles.
Cycles have peaks and troughs, and each stage comes with its own characteristics.
We’ve seen two major bull cycles before. And they both tell an important story.
Bull Cycle #1: 1971–1980 — A 3,793% Explosion
Silver rose from $1.27 (1971) to $49.45 (1980) — a massive 3,793% increase.
But here’s the key: most of the gains came in the final stage of the cycle.
Silver didn’t close above $7.50 until 1979… and then shot to $49.45 within months.
You’d make a nice chuck of change if you only woke up to silver in 1979.
Bull Cycle #2: 1993–2011 — A 1,302% Move
The second major bull market saw silver rise from $3.53 (1993) to $49.51 (2011) — a 1,302% jump.
Once again, the big gains came late.
Silver didn’t break above $10 until 2006 — 13 years after the low.
Then it ran to $21.24 in early 2008, crashed below $10, and finally surged from $9 to $49.51 between 2008 and April 2011.
If you simply bought in August 2010 and sold in April 2011, silver jumped 156% in eight months.
Where We Are Today in the Current Cycle
Now look at the current move:
- Silver bottomed at $11.64 in 2020.
- It rallied to $29.82 that same year.
- Then it saw a 40%+ decline into September 2022.
- Once it broke those highs in late 2024, momentum exploded.
- Since then, silver is up ~113%.
- From the 2020 lows, it’s up ~446%.
Based on previous cycles, it’s clear: we are in the stage where the majority of gains typically occur.
But—this is also the late stage of the cycle.
Late-Cycle Warning Signs Are Here
History shows that late-cycle silver has distinct characteristics:
- Headlines about shortages
- Rising premiums on physical bullion
- Surging investor demand
- Silver outperforming gold
Right now, silver is up 111% YTD, while gold is up 62.23%.
That’s classic late-cycle behavior.
The Blind Spot: What Happens After the Peak?
This doesn’t mean silver is done.
The fundamentals remain broken. More upside is possible. But ignoring history is dangerous.
After the past two silver peaks:
- The first cycle took 13 years to bottom again
- The second cycle took nine years
And from each peak to the next low:
- Cycle 1 saw a 92% decline
- Cycle 2 saw a 76% decline
Silver has delivered two periods of incredible gains… followed by two massive declines.
Will this time be different?
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