1. It’s SpaceX IPO Day: Don’t Get Lost in the Noise
It’s SpaceX IPO day.
There’s so much noise surrounding it that it’s honestly a little scary.
Don’t forget Peter Lynch’s famous words: “Behind every stock, there’s a company.”
Know that noise moves stocks in the near term, but fundamentals matter in the long term.
Here’s a pro tip: very rarely do long-term investors get the best price during the initial IPO pop. More often than not, once the excitement fades, the stock price tends to get dragged lower before finding its footing.
Patience can pay.
2. One Social Media Post Changed the Market
Yesterday, it was a post on Truth Social that turned the market around.
Is there a deal between Iran and the United States now? Nope.
We’re still waiting for the final details. Apparently, an agreement is expected to be signed on Sunday.
If oil sanctions are lifted, what does that mean? More supply.
Looking at WTI crude, it’s trading near a key support level around $85 per barrel. A break below that level could bring $72 oil relatively quickly—which may represent fair value for now.
We also suspect that over the next few quarters, GCC countries could rush to increase production, assuming their production facilities remain intact.
3. Gold’s Bounce Wasn’t Enough
Gold had a solid bounce following President Trump’s post. However, it wasn’t enough to recover from the previous day’s losses. Keep in mind that gold continues to trade below both its 200-day moving average and 50-day moving average.
The $4,100-$4,000 range remains a major level to watch.
Silver also bounced and tested its 200-day moving average. We’ll be watching closely to see whether that level becomes a selling point or if silver can bounce higher from here.
A silver close below $65 could become dangerous.
Meanwhile, copper remains choppy near all-time highs, and platinum and palladium remain broken.
Overall, precious metals haven’t looked particularly attractive recently. At least, that’s what the charts are saying for now.
4. Central Banks Are No Longer Moving Together
The European Central Bank (ECB) raised rates yesterday.
The Federal Reserve is expected to hold steady, and we’ll hear more from them next Wednesday.
The Bank of Canada also left rates unchanged.
Next Monday brings the Bank of Japan’s decision, and expectations for a rate hike remain high. The last time the Bank of Japan raised rates, it created massive ripple effects throughout global financial markets.
Also on deck next week: Bank of England, Swiss National Bank, and Reserve Bank of Australia
There’s a growing lack of synchronization among major central banks. That matters. This can impact bond markets, and they have the ability to create a tremendous amount of pain across asset classes.
Don’t ignore them.
5. Bitcoin Struggles While Risk Management Matters
Bitcoin is having a difficult time breaking above $63,000. Watch closely for if there’s another move lower in the making. The $61,000 level remains critical. A break below it could send Bitcoin toward $55,000 or lower very quickly.
Meanwhile, the Toronto condo market is beginning to show some signs of life. However, it’s still far too early to draw any major conclusions. Prices remain significantly lower than previous highs. This could simply be a spring market bounce.
Investing 101: paying attention to your risk is extremely important. You could be playing a losing game if you’re risking more for less potential reward. Even worse things can happen when you don’t understand your downside and only have a vague idea of the upside.
When you don’t know your potential risk and potential reward, investing can essentially become like throwing darts in the dark.