1. Silver getting frothy
As I write this, silver is trading around $99.57, uncomfortably close to $100 an ounce.
Silver has had an incredible run. Anyone who’s been following me knows I was early on this move. The thesis was simple: fundamentals would eventually catch up.
Now though, it’s time to watch allocations. Silver is starting to look frothy. Yes, it can go higher—but from here, it’ll need a lot more juice to move meaningfully higher.
There’s clear bubble-like behavior creeping in. Miners are entering that phase where you start seeing insane moves.
Stops matter now more than ever, in my opinion. Just don’t get run over.
2. Earnings season is here
Earnings season has officially begun, and we’re heading into the busy stretch. The next few weeks will be intense.
Key thing to remember: stock-specific risk rises sharply during earnings. Know what you own, why you own it, and what’s happening at the company level.
Also, remember—when heavyweights move, they move the entire index with them.
50-day moving average for the S&P 500 remains a big battle ground. Will we retest it again or now time to go higher?
3. Iran, oil, and weekend risk
Now that the Greenland fiasco has faded and the TACO trade is back on, the conversation has shifted to potential military strikes on Iran.
Oil is reacting modestly so far, but the real question is this: If Iran is attacked, does the Strait of Hormuz get shut down?
Iran floated that idea in the past, but it would hurt neighboring countries as well—and many of them have been vocal about no war with Iran.
Still, this is something to watch closely, especially heading into the weekend. Oddly enough, these situations tend to escalate when markets are closed.
4. Bank of Japan update
Last night, the Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged.
The yen swung around a bit, but overall, the reaction was relatively calm.
What matters: higher Japanese yields are making Japanese debt more attractive than before.
The BoJ has also been signaling—at least for now—that it won’t intervene.
Japan risk hasn’t disappeared. It’s still there, and it still has the potential to shock the system.
5. Bitcoin, yields, and Canada
Bitcoin has tested its 50-day moving average three times in the last three days and failed each time. That’s important. Don’t be surprised if a downside move is brewing.
U.S. 10-year yields are cooling slightly, but they remain elevated.
I’m also hearing a lot of chatter around a “Short Carney” trade following the Davos speech. On top of that, PM Carney being uninvited from the Board of Peace is making the rounds.
Lastly, the Canadian dollar vs. USD is starting to look constructive.