1. Inflation, Retail, and Housing: The Data Dump
We finally got U.S. PPI and Retail Sales for September (thanks to the shutdown delay). And don’t hold your breath for October—next data we see will likely be for November.
Both reports came in below expectations.
On housing: the U.S. Home Price Index (HPI) showed no month-over-month change, and the Case-Shiller S&P Home Price Index came in as expected—if you look at the chart, there’s deceleration.
We also get Pending Home Sales today. That number has been quietly getting a little concerning.
2. S&P 500 Can’t Catch a Break
The S&P 500 tested the 50-day moving average again… and failed again. That’s now six straight closes below the 50-day.
November 20th’s price action remains crucial. For direction, we need a definitive move above or below that zone.
On a positive note, earnings estimates still look fine for now. So, does the party goes on?
3. The Tech Sector Is Basically a Sitcom
Tell me this doesn’t feel like prime-time comedy at this point.
The first headline I saw this morning: “Nvidia stock drops because Meta said they’ll use Google AI chips.”
It’s giving: “I’m breaking up with you because my friend said she doesn’t like you.”
And then you have the whole OpenAI circle-investment drama—basically the tech version of, “If you’re in my friend group, I guarantee you become a cool kid.”
Markets are hyper-fixated on just a handful of names, and honestly that’s the part that scares me the most.
4. Metals, Oil, and the Commodities Rollercoaster
Gold and silver are showing some life again. I’m watching $52 on silver—a clean break above could be bullish, but let’s see.
Oil continues to trend downward. Headlines say Ukraine has tentatively agreed to Trump’s proposed plan, which is adding pressure to crude prices.
Copper remains choppy.
And finally, I see a bit of relief in rare earth and uranium names.
5. Bitcoin, Bonds, and “When the Ducks Quack…”
Bitcoin had a nice rally over the past few days, but it came on low volume—so watching that closely.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is sitting slightly below 100, but still above its 200-day moving average.
U.S. 10-year yields (US10Y) are cooling a bit.
Meanwhile, big tech firms are issuing bonds like it’s Black Friday. As the old saying goes: “When the ducks quack, feed them.”