1. Banks Beat, S&P Back Near Highs — Is the Market Getting Ahead of Itself?
Bank of America posted EPS of $1.11 vs. $1.01 expected. Morgan Stanley came in at $3.43 vs. $3.02. ASML raised its 2026 revenue guidance to €36–40 billion on AI-driven chip demand.
The S&P 500 has effectively wiped out all the Iran-war losses from early March. The market right now is pricing in strong earnings, no issues to the economy, and a clean Iran deal at the same time. If one of those does not materialize, we could give back a chunk of this rally fast. Let’s see.
Also, don’t forget there’s a giant gap just below the 50-day moving average. Will it get filled?
And, we are in earnings season. Your stock specific risk is very high. So, know what you own.
2. Gold, Silver, Copper, Uranium — The Whole Commodity Complex Is Running
Gold is sitting at $4,840, up over 40% in the last year.
Silver is at $80, up over 130% year-over-year — let that sink in.
Copper is above $6.00 – watching it closely. A rip higher could bring in a lot more buyers. Interesting though, it is happening with growth story getting a lot of backlash.
Uranium is holding around $85 a pound — quietly steady, but uranium stocks are in party mode.
3. Oil Below $91 — Peace Deal or Head Fake?
WTI crude dropped to $90 handle this morning as word spreads that a second round of U.S.–Iran talks could happen over the next two days in Islamabad.
Oil retreating is definitely a welcome news, but we’d be careful calling this resolved. Iran is already accusing Washington of breaching the ceasefire, and we’re one drone in Iranian airspace away from another escalation.
There are still some wildcards here.
But, very clear that U.S. wants out (that’s what market thinks too), and Iran actually may get a better deal than it would’ve gotten without the war.
4. The IMF Just Said the Quiet Part Out Loud
The IMF dropped its World Economic Outlook yesterday and cut its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1%, down from 3.4%.
In their worst-case scenario, if the Iran war drags on and oil stays elevated, global growth falls to 2.0% — what the IMF called a close call for a global recession.
Growth has only been at or below that level four times since 1980. IMF chief economist told reporters minutes after the release that the adverse scenario is already looking increasingly likely.
If oil does not come down meaningfully and stay down, the second half of this year is going to be a very different conversation.
5. The $25,000 Barrier Is Gone — The PDT Rule Just Changed
As of yesterday, April 14, the SEC officially approved the elimination of the Pattern Day Trader (PDT) rule — the regulation that forced retail traders to maintain a minimum $25,000 account balance just to make few day trades in a rolling five-day period. That rule has been in place since 2001. It is now gone.
From what we understand: the new framework is risk-based – margin gets calculated in real time based on the actual volatility of what you’re trading and your position size, not a blunt account threshold.
Brokers have some time to fully implement the new systems, so the transition will be gradual — but the direction is clear. This is a big deal for smaller retail investors who have been locked out of active trading strategies.
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