1. The Bank of Japan Just Raised Rates—Now the Real Story Begins
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised interest rates, exactly as markets expected.
Now, things get more interesting…
The BoJ has made it clear that it wants to defend the yen at almost whatever cost. But despite that, the Japanese yen continues to weaken against the U.S. dollar.
The BoJ has intervened several times when the yen approached the 160 level against the USD. At the time of writing, the yen is trading around 160 once again. Will another intervention be coming?
The bigger question is this: What happens if the yen breaks below 160? Does that force the BoJ to raise rates even more aggressively?
There is also a massive carry trade tied to the yen. If we get even a hint that this trade is beginning to unwind, things could get ugly very quickly.
2. Oil Is in a Deep Bear Market
WTI crude is trading below $78 per barrel, down nearly 4% at the time of writing.
This is happening as the oil market removes much of the war premium from prices—at least for now.
Just to put things into perspective: oil is now in a deep bear market, down roughly 35% from the highs reached on March 9. And remember, on February 27, WTI was trading around $64.
On the downside, the 200-day moving average near $73 is worth watching closely.
As for oil stocks, a reality check may be coming. Be very careful. Know what you own and why you own it.
3. SpaceX Mania: The Market Is Showing Its Hand
SpaceX stock surged above $220 overnight, making the company larger than some of the biggest names on the stock market.
Look, this is the market showing its hand.
We’re living through a mania phase, where only a handful of recent winners are capturing the majority of investors’ attention.
Meanwhile, there’s a lot of value hiding underneath the surface. If you’re a long-term investor, it may be worth looking beyond the top 100 performers. There are thousands of publicly traded companies.
There’s one thing that happens on market over and over again: when momentum eventually breaks in the hottest stocks, the unwind is often painful to watch.
4. Don’t Forget About Private Credit
In case you’ve forgotten, private credit issues remain beneath the surface.
Because it’s such an opaque market, we don’t receive a constant stream of information.
However, one thing is clear: Higher interest rates remain a major problem.
Some private credit funds are already limiting withdrawals, which could point to liquidity concerns—or simply investors becoming nervous.
Either way, it’s worth paying attention.
Keywords to watch:
- Default rates
- In-kind payments
- Defaults
- Bankruptcies
- Exposure
- Contagion
5. Bitcoin Needs a New Story
Michael Saylor’s Strategy purchased another $100 million worth of Bitcoin, making it one of the biggest stories overnight. But keep one thing in mind: at the moment, there isn’t a particularly strong narrative driving Bitcoin higher.
Bitcoin often needs a compelling story to fuel its next major move.
Meanwhile, falling oil prices tend to weigh on the Canadian dollar.
As for the Canadian housing market, conditions remain challenging. We may be seeing a spring market bounce, but it’s still too early to know for sure.
Construction activity remains weak, development costs are still elevated, and many buyers continue to believe: “Prices will come down even more.” That mindset remains very much in play.