1. Slow Data Week – Watch the Narrative
It’s a relatively slow data week for the U.S. and Canada.
However, we do get to hear from a bunch of Federal Reserve officials. So, the key thing will be to watch how the narrative is shaping up.
Also, if you have been noticing, during no-data weeks, we have been seeing markets become more volatile lately. Something to keep in mind. Why could this be? I think slow data weeks allow people to position better / get better executions versus data-heavy weeks.
2. S&P 500 – 50-Day Moving Average in Focus
On Friday, the S&P 500 closed above its 50-day moving average after a few days. This was with the tariff noise in the background.
As I write this, I am seeing futures selling off a little bit. But let’s see how the day goes. If there’s a recovery above the moving average, then the move might be to the upside in the near term, at least.
On the downside, on the S&P 500, 6,800 is a massive near-term support level. If that breaks, we could see 6,500 very quickly.
Though, keep in mind that this tariff noise is going to bring back some of the fears we experienced in early 2025.
3. Commodities – Key Levels Everywhere
Gold is trying to make a move to the upside. $5,100 is a big level for now. A close above it will make the bullish case stronger.
Silver remains choppy. Apparently, there is some noise about a squeeze in COMEX, but know that there’s a range here: $70–$90. It needs to get out of it to give an idea about direction. Super choppy.
Copper is bouncing off the 50-day moving average. Watching closely — noise and sentiment aren’t aligning with data here.
Coffee, cocoa, and orange juice are selling off a bit — but will it have an impact on breakfast prices?
4. Geopolitics & Oil – War Premium Building?
It was widely believed that the U.S. would attack Iran over the weekend given the military buildup, but this didn’t happen. The risk of war is still there; however, there’s still some talk.
I read over the weekend that Trump is confused/curious why Iran hasn’t folded given the firepower in the region.
Now, how does this impact oil prices? There’s a clear uptrend in oil prices at the moment. The oil market is paying some war premium.
In case of upside, $70 and then $75–$78 are big levels to watch. A break above that takes us to $82. But also keep in mind that higher oil prices are not in the interest of Trump.
5. Bitcoin, Dollar & Hidden Credit Risk
Bitcoin is testing a support level around $65–$66K. If this breaks, be very careful — a lot more selling could follow.
The U.S. dollar is selling off a bit again. Watching the Dollar Index. 96.5 is a big level to watch. Could that break?
CAD against the USD is potentially setting up to make another move to the upside. If 0.74 breaks, we could be looking at a major downtrend breaking.
Oh — and don’t forget: private equity / private credit is an opaque market. Mark-to-market takes some time, and there’s still a chance that a lot more were swimming naked than we know at the moment.