1. Anthropic Files to Go Public: Will Investors Sell the News?
This morning, we learned that Anthropic has filed its S-1, essentially the filing required to go public. There are a lot of interesting details in it, but the big thing to keep in mind is that AI valuations are being questioned.
Over the past few weeks, we’ve learned that a number of AI IPOs have been shelved. Anthropic has reported massive losses, and we also know that OpenAI has cut its valuation.
It will be interesting to see what happens when Anthropic goes public under the ticker ANT. Will it turn into a sell-the-news event?
2. Gold’s $4,000 Line in the Sand and a Seasonal Warning
Gold closed a few dollars below $4,000 on Friday, but this morning, it’s trading above that level. I can’t stress this enough: $4,000 is a big level to watch. If gold breaks below it, prices will likely move lower as selling momentum builds.
Silver has broken below $55 and is currently trading around $54. The key support range is between $53 and $55. A break below $53 could be very dangerous for silver and potentially take it down to the $45–$47 range.
Seasonally speaking, this is generally a bad time for gold and silver. Speaking from experience, precious metals tend to sell off between late October and late November. Then, a good seasonal opportunity often emerges in mid-December, with the move potentially carrying into the early new year.
Will it happen again this year? It might. This pattern has played out for several years now.
3. The S&P 500 Fights to Reclaim Its 50-Day Moving Average
The S&P 500 is testing its 50-day moving average. It broke below the level and traded beneath it for two consecutive days, but this morning, it appears to be testing it again.
We’ll see how it goes. If the index remains below its 50-day moving average, more sellers could step in.
Keep in mind that earnings season is still underway, so stock-specific risk is higher. Know what you own and why. Guidance usually matters much more than what has already happened.
4. Yields Drop as Money Rotates Into Bonds?
Looking at yields, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has dropped below 5%, while the 30-year yield has fallen to 5.2%. There’s definitely some cooling in yields, but is it over?
What’s interesting is that yields have come down even as stocks have fallen. This could indicate a rotation, with money moving out of stocks and into bonds.
However, global yields remain elevated.
Interestingly, Japanese yields have also fallen sharply, dropping from 3.1% earlier in October to 2.8% now. They’re trending lower.
5. Bitcoin Loses Its Breakout Level
Bitcoin has dropped below the $82,000–$83,000 level and fallen beneath its 50-day moving average. This could bring more sellers into the market. Now, the $77,000–$78,000 range is a big level to watch. A break below that range could send Bitcoin down to $64,000 very quickly.
Oil continues to react to war-related headlines, with WTI at $101 and Brent at $115. Prices remain elevated in case the noise turns into action, which could push oil prices even higher. Oil has been very reactive to war headlines recently.
This week, we hear from both the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve. On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada is expected to raise rates by 25 basis points, while the Federal Reserve is expected to hold.
The press conferences following the announcements will be worth watching closely. They could offer clues about how the Fed and the Bank of Canada are thinking about the economy and the path of interest rates.